"Other search companies would have to invest at an equal or greater rate just to catch up. We would launch an arms race and spend our opponents into bankruptcy."
Great analysis. I broadly agree with Google's strong positioning due to its infrastructure, data, and product surfaces
One additional angle worth considering is the accelerating impact of open-source models
If foundational model quality commoditizes faster than expected (similar to how Kubernetes reshaped cloud competition), the key battleground could shift from model performance to product integration and distribution much sooner than the historical search analogy suggests
That would certainly be an alternative scenario; I would argue it would take not just the mere existence of open-source (or "open-weights") models, they would also have to keep up with the state-of-the-art models, and there should be a low-cost way to serve them.
That seems to be, in broad-strokes, the bet of the other big tech companies are making (that models would keep getting commoditized), which is why I thought it was interesting to describe the scenario where Google's unique approach might win. I agree that there are other potential ways for this to play out, and we'll just have to wait and find out :)
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, it will be interesting to watch
Great analysis. I broadly agree with Google's strong positioning due to its infrastructure, data, and product surfaces
One additional angle worth considering is the accelerating impact of open-source models
If foundational model quality commoditizes faster than expected (similar to how Kubernetes reshaped cloud competition), the key battleground could shift from model performance to product integration and distribution much sooner than the historical search analogy suggests
Wrote some thoughts on this dynamic https://www.tiroshi.com/blog/googles_ai_strategy_vs_open_source/ - would love your take if you have time
That would certainly be an alternative scenario; I would argue it would take not just the mere existence of open-source (or "open-weights") models, they would also have to keep up with the state-of-the-art models, and there should be a low-cost way to serve them.
That seems to be, in broad-strokes, the bet of the other big tech companies are making (that models would keep getting commoditized), which is why I thought it was interesting to describe the scenario where Google's unique approach might win. I agree that there are other potential ways for this to play out, and we'll just have to wait and find out :)
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, it will be interesting to watch
Thanks for sharing. insightful